tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-65437025970780387462024-03-05T14:18:31.567-08:00International Law BlogFuture Foreign Policyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09896439662516345028noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6543702597078038746.post-72039504716404542762012-08-15T05:18:00.000-07:002012-08-17T05:28:09.616-07:00International Criminal Law – A Good Time to Reflect<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
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Congolese warlord Thomas Lubanga during his trial for conscripting and
enlisting children to be used in armed conflict. <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/law/2012/mar/14/thomas-lubanga-international-criminal-court" target="_blank">Evert-Jan Daniels/AP</a>.</span></span></td></tr>
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<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Introduction </span></b></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Criticising international criminal law has long been a favourite pastime for international legal academics and has provided a wealth of literature on the subject. This has however been arguably justifiable considering the patchy track record of international criminal law in delivering justice on an unrestricted international scale, the very reason for which it was conceived. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Despite the continued developments and strengthening of international criminal system over the past sixty years, both institutionally and jurisprudentially, it is has remained plagued by various problems and deficiencies. Many of these are an unavoidable result of the deference to sovereignty that international criminal law must pay whilst others are ongoing teething problems associated with infancy of the hybrid legal system. This has resulted in a highly inconsistent success rate of capturing and prosecuting those individuals accused of some of most heinous crimes known to man.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">There are two main criticisms of international criminal law which are regularly recited within the literature. The first is that international criminal law has failed to bring to justice the most senior state officials who fund, plan and orchestrate the commission of the most grievous international crimes. The second focuses on the fact that the long awaited and much trumpeted International Criminal Court had failed to bring a single conviction after almost ten years in existence.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">These criticisms have however to some extent been mitigated by two recent developments – the conviction of Thomas Lubanga, a former Congolese warlord and Charles Taylor, ex-President of Liberia, in judgments delivered by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and Special Court for Sierra Leone (SCSL) on the 14 March 2012 and 26 April 2012 respectively. These are significant milestones in the ongoing development of international criminal law and prove to the international community that international criminal law and more especially the ICC regime is capable of bringing all individuals to justice and ending global impunity.</span></div>
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<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The Lubanga Judgment </span></b></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The conviction of Thomas Lubanga, the first for the ICC and delivered shortly before its 10<sup>th</sup> anniversary, is a momentous achievement and a major step forward for the Institution. The judgment proves to the international community and the ICC’s many critics, that it is an institution capable of delivering international justice despite the constraints imposed upon it and has gone a long way to alleviating the lingering fears about the ineffectiveness of the ICC. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The judgment is also significant as it is the first to confirm the existence of criminal liability for using child soldiers in armed conflict. This practice is prominent throughout Africa and has been for centuries, but it is hoped that Lubanga’s conviction will mark the beginning of the end of this heinous practice, drawing the world’s attention to the issue and acting as a serious deterrent to those who seek to use children in war - as Radhika Coomaraswamy, the UN’s Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict, stated ‘<a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/congo-warlord-thomas-lubanga-convicted-of-using-child-soliders-7566058.html"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;"><i>In this age of global media, today’s verdict will reach warlords and commanders across the world and serve as a strong deterrent’</i></span></a><i>.</i></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">It must however be noted that despite its significance some strong criticism has been levied against the judgement. Firstly, it is considered to be very inaccessible. The judgment is almost 600 pages long and highly technocratic and it has therefore been criticised for failing to reach those directly affected by the crimes committed. The judgment is also criticised for being too safe and conservative. It was hoped that the first judgement would seize the opportunity to explore and clarify the nature of the offence of using child soldiers but it fails to do so, offering very little in the way of substance or legal creativity. </span></div>
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<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The Charles Taylor Judgment </span></b></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The conviction of Charles Taylor was a truly significant moment in modern international criminal law as it was the first time since the Nuremberg Trials that a former head of state was tried and convicted for international crimes in an international criminal tribunal. This judgment proves that no one is above the law and therefore goes a considerable way to reducing the potency of the traditional criticism, that international criminal law is only capable of prosecuting more junior individuals and continues to allow the most senior government officials to live with perpetual impunity – as lead prosecutor Brenda Hollis stated <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/26/charles-taylor-guilty-war-crimes"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">“<i>This judgment reinforces the new reality, that heads of state will be held accountable for war crimes....no person, not matter how powerful, will be above the law</i>”.</span></a> This judgment is also significant for Africa in particular, the continent having struggled to deal with very powerful leaders who have abused their power with horrendous and bloody consequences. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The basis on which Taylor was convicted is also very significant and reflects a positive shift in international criminal law. The former Liberian <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/26/charles-taylor-guilty-war-crimes"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">president was convicted of aiding and abetting war crimes for his role in perpetuating the conflict in Sierra Leone.</span></a> Taylor’s link to the crimes committed was significant but a physically detached one and this evidences the fact that international criminal law is beginning to move beyond merely focussing on prosecuting those individuals who directly and physically perpetrate crimes, as has traditionally been the case, and is now being more bold and dynamic in attributing criminal liability to more senior individuals who do not have blood on their hands but without whose leadership and influence the crimes would not occur. These individuals are arguably the most culpable and it is right and just that they are now being brought to justice. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Once again however the judgment has not been without criticism. It has been suggested that conducting the trial at The Hague, thousands of miles away from where the atrocities occurred, and not on West Africa soil <a href="http://www.iss.co.za/iss_today.php?ID=1474"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;"><i>‘took away an aspect of the peoples’ ownership of the trial</i>’</span></a> and detracted from the positive ongoing move toward African solutions to African problems, of which the SCSL was emblematic.</span></div>
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<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">What does this mean for the future of International Criminal Law?</span></b></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The judgments in the Lubanga and Charles Taylor cases are both very important moments in the development of international criminal law and ones whose significance should not be underestimated. Despite both judgments having notable drawbacks their impact on the ongoing development of international criminal law, in terms of its jurisprudential substance and its reputation on the international stage are unquestionable and will undoubtedly contribute to the ongoing development of a greater and more effective international criminal system. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">These judgments however mark only the start of what appears to be a much brighter and more fruitful future for international criminal law. The International Criminal Court is close to delivering its second judgment in the case of Katanga and Chui and has now got its second prosecutor. Radovan Karadzic, a former Bosnian Serb leader, is currently on trial for war crimes and crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia and Bernard Munyagishari, a former Rwandan militia leader, is currently on trial at the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda charged with genocide.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">It is hoped that these cases will set a new standard in international criminal law, ensuring that no man is above the law and that those individuals who plan, organise and orchestrate the most heinous of international crimes, wherever they are committed, are no longer allowed to live in absolute impunity and are brought to justice in front of the world.</span></div>
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Future Foreign Policyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09896439662516345028noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6543702597078038746.post-30350402433036252192012-07-04T14:51:00.000-07:002012-07-04T15:09:52.575-07:00Press Ethics in the Brave New World<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
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<a href="http://www.futureforeignpolicy.com/1/futureshare/" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1psW_MNvpPb3tumB0nw9v_sSVqoDimpkYgd6zDe-7Bv80aiGyA1_S6DcYWyeC-NMuvbUfsyV4AcGQjTL8YyPjwPd77QTvn-vnW5UQBr1ji-ciQFMebfJMScSDI7SJPThZv-Ues0WN-JM/s1600/futuresharelink1.jpg" /></a><span style="color: #351c75; font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sam Storr</span></span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><a href="https://syriatracker.crowdmap.com/" target="_blank">The CrowdMap Syria Tracker.</a></span></td></tr>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The prominence of the vocal, online crowd in so much of our news has rapidly been accepted into our common reality. So rapidly that this reality is much more mature than the debate over its implications.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The popular view of crowdsourcing is very much in its adolescence. Talk abounds of revolutions driven by the social use of simple Western technological innovations, an ideology of open self-expression that can cut across the old restraints and unite all on some shared plane of human diversity.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">It is surely true that the opportunities for journalism are great. It has been proven that technology can enable people to speak out in places where the threat of violence or repression would previously have led to this information being suppressed. Rather than having to mine for information, in some places the gems appear to shoot straight from the ground.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Outside of the famous crisis areas, crowdsourcing widens the scope for participation, such as in the <a href="http://blog.us/"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">recent collaboration</span></a> between Al Jazeera and the open-source software group Ushahidi, intended to harvest the opinions of ordinary Somalis.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Ushahidi itself was a project that <a href="http://www.kenyanpundit.com/2008/01/09/ushahidicom/"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">coalesced</span></a> on the blog of Kenyan journalist Ory Okkoloh, now Google’s Policy Manager for Africa, in response to the violence and lack of information following the Kenyan elections in December 2007, before the famous Green Revolution in Iran. Now providing a versatile open software in use the world over, Ushahidi provides a platform for anybody to contribute in media ranging from text messages to Twitter, to a map of events in space and time. Even in places where violence overshadows a free press, <a href="http://www.americasquarterly.org/node/2576"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">certain Twitter feeds</span></a> and <a href="http://www.blogdelnarco.com/"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">blogs</span></a> enable people to take control of the information environment.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Yet all exuberance results in hangover. Evgeny Morozov, amongst others, has already written convincingly of how social media can also offer unique opportunities for dissent to be tracked and crushed. The dangers are insidious and can come in surprising forms, from the sophistication of Middle Easter security regimes to the <a href="http://articles.cnn.com/2011-09-14/world/mexico.violence_1_zetas-cartel-social-media-users-nuevo-laredo?_s="><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">murderous reaction</span></a> of Mexican drug cartels to those that spoke ill of them on Facebook.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">It is natural to accept the bravery of the activist, journalist, or war correspondent for what it is, if less so for those innocents who without meaning fall afoul of the violent on social media. But admiration should not lead to apathy. When tragedies strike activists, they are lamented, but sometimes consolation is found in the fact that at least their voice was heard. Yet all good journalists take the proper precautions, so that what they do can fully be considered <a href="http://cpj.org/security/2012/02/to-quote-marie-colvin-what-is-bravery-and-what-bra.php"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">worth the sacrifices</span></a> they make. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Although the relationship between journalists and their sources may be changing, its nature should remain the same, and all steps taken to inform and enable activists to deal with the risks. Despite the open chaos and unseen dangers of the internet, Eva Galperin of the Electronic Frontiers Foundation is adamant that it remains ‘incumbent on journalists to insist on secure communications.’</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Often, the proper precautions require that both journalists and their sources become experts in online security themselves. Galperin <a href="http://cpj.org/security/2012/05/dont-get-your-sources-in-syria-killed.php"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">reports</span></a> that the Syrian regime’s use of digital surveillance, hacking and malware has created an ‘unusually difficult situation.’ It should be noted here that responsibility for the capabilities of many repressive regimes lies partly with the <a href="http://wikileaks.org/the-spyfiles.html"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">Western companies</span></a> that create bespoke software explicitly for their use.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">One major precaution is to avoid the use of all kinds of phones; though their accessibility makes them popular, they are insecure and can give away the user’s location. The Committee believes that many, especially the unsung locals who may account for nine of every ten <a href="http://cpj.org/killed/"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">journalistic deaths</span></a> worldwide, are <a href="http://cpj.org/security/2012/05/safer-mobile-use-for-journalists.php"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">insufficiently aware</span></a> of these risks.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Beyond this, all must take care of their internet security, using only encrypted communications (and even encrypted Skype calls can be listened in on with <a href="http://blog.standbytaskforce.com/the-security-and-ethics-of-live-mapping-in-repressive-regimes-and-hostile-environments/"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">50-90% accuracy</span></a>), browsing using software such as TOR, avoiding malware, deleting all sensitive information, and being prepared for viruses that their software may not detect.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Luckily, the internet also provides a great deal of free support and guidance – <a href="http://www.blogger.com/%22http"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">Ushahidi</span></a>, <a href="https://safermobile.org/"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">SaferMobile</span></a> and the <a href="http://blog.standbytaskforce.com/the-security-and-ethics-of-live-mapping-in-repressive-regimes-and-hostile-environme"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">Standby Task Force</span></a> being good examples. In addition to expertise, the best organisations provide <a href="https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B1egu6P0w1aOOWJmMmI5M2QtNDk3NC00NTBkLWIzNWItNDk3OGZiNWIyZjk4/edit?hl=en&authkey=CJanjPgN"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">ethics guides</span></a><span style="font: normal normal normal 11px/normal Helvetica;">.</span> With open-source software being what it is though, not all using it can be depended on to stick to them. Few deployments of the Ushahidi platform were run by the Ushahidi team itself. Very little on the internet can truly be trusted, even powerful hacker collectives are plagued to the extent that police forces can infiltrate and turn their ranks; in Syria, even revolutionary documents and programs purporting to encrypt Skype turned out to be <a href="https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2012/06/darkshades-rat"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">Trojan attacks</span></a> likely to have emanated from the regime.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Without doubt it is the duty of journalists to ensure that their sources are aware of and prepared for the dangers. It cannot be happily assumed that reporters are fully aware of and accept the risks. No doubt most professional news organisations attempt to do so as best they can. Yet there is a danger that the technologically driven spread and democratisation of journalism that accompanies the declining fortunes of mainstream reporting, amidst the growing pressures of the 24-hour news cycle, threaten a decline in professionalism. Neither is the proper two-way flow of information guaranteed when news is simply gathered from YouTube and Twitter. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Though new-style journalism and the techniques of the crowd come hand-in-hand, they may not necessarily be the best partners. Indeed, it is important not to over-emphasise novelty. ‘Hazrid’, a Syrian tech activist, <a href="http://www.demotix.com/blog/1175674/tech-and-syrian-revolution-"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">told Demotix</span></a>, somewhat fatalistically, the he expects most of his co-rebels to be caught ‘old style’, due to arrests, torture, and informing. Many of both the dangers and the precautions pre-date their digital forms, though they may now be amplified.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">It is also certain that crowdsourced journalism, in its disruptiveness, raises broader ethical questions. For example, while someone posting information publicly might appear to knowingly accept the risks of doing so, they might only be targeted if other users or the mainstream news make their contribution famous. This information can also put others at risk; the ability of the Syrian government to arrest activists has led to the realisation that protests must be filmed so as <a href="http://b/"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">not to show faces</span></a>. Even the most careful relinquish control over their fate and that of others when posting to the internet, so that it might be asked, whither goes the responsibility for their risk?</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Despite the opportunities and the passive participation enabled by technological change, those who put themselves at risk through their participation in the online crowd are owed more than respect and the propagation of their message.</span></div>
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</div>Future Foreign Policyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09896439662516345028noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6543702597078038746.post-29984743695788421662012-06-15T07:00:00.001-07:002012-06-15T07:27:14.219-07:00Syria: The Dangers of Desperation<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Bullets litter the ground in Houla. <a href="http://www.trust.org/resize_image?path=/dotAsset/5abedf54-4965-4db8-81d3-e1117cda7ae7.jpg&w=649" target="_blank">Reuters</a>.</span></span></td></tr>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">If the last two decades hold a lesson about crisis prevention and intervention, it is that the international community has been fairly poor at it. As all parties to the conflict combine to turn Syria into a violent pressure-cooker, dire predictions are <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/31/syria-ban-ki-moon-civil-war"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">being made</span></a> of what kind of tipping point might eventually be reached, even raising the ghosts of <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/30/kofi-annan-weak-syria-violence"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">past Annan plans in Bosnia and Rwanda</span></a>. This international community called upon by the rebels – comprising reluctant liberal-internationalist-opportunists, authoritarian dictatorships, and religious Gulf States – should beware the influence it could have on the dynamics of the conflict. All steps should be taken to avoid endorsing the Assad plan.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The scale of the violence in Syria continues to escalate, and is <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/05/30/what%20_the_hell_should_we_do_about_syria?page=0,2"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">said</span></a> to be past the point of a convenient solution, such as the ‘Yemenskii Variant’ given much <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/world/middleeast/us-seeks-russias-help-in-removing-assad-in-syria.html"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">thought in Russia</span></a>. The UN Human Rights Commissioner is <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/02/syrian-regime-amnesty-un-rights"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">adamant</span></a> that there will be no easy escape for Bashar Al-Assad’s regime through amnesty. Assad continues because he believes the opposition can be crushed before he is totally isolated, a possibility which remains in flux. If he is abandoned though, there might be little reason for him to stop. The temptation will grow to suspect him of madness, unable to accept defeat or to react in any other way.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">As Syria becomes <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/29/world/middleeast/refugees-say-neighbor-shoots-neighbor-in-syrian-crackdown.html?_r=1&hp"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">portrayed</span></a> as a sectarian conflict, it is apparent that Assad might follow a logic darker than the death impulse. A <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/africaatlse/2011/12/05/new-lse-research-the-psychology-of-security-threats-evidence-from-rwanda/"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">dominant explanation</span></a> for why a society might suddenly implode holds that a challenged leadership can draw its supporters (the in-group) closer around them by encouraging xenophobic feelings towards the rest (the out-group). It is <a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/7259336/Hintjens-Explaining-the-1994-Genocide-in-Rwanda"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">believed</span></a> that the increasingly corrupt and isolated Hutu elite ruling Rwanda in 1994 instigated genocide against the Tutsi in an ultimately suicidal attempt to reaffirm their authority and support among the Hutu majority. An internationally-imposed agreement was on the cusp of forcing them to share power with the enemy Tutsi, at the cost of their patronage system. The killing may also have been intended to ensure that the international community could never again attempt to reunite Rwanda.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Assad’s power system is similarly constituted, with Alawites dominating the government and the army, in particular the component causing violence. Not all Alawites have in fact <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/03/2012320145220814960.html"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">prospered</span></a> under Assad either. The arming of loyalist <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/31/ghosts-syria-regime-shabiha-militias"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;"><i>Shabbiha</i></span></a><i> </i>militias, said to have played a large role in the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/01/houla-massacre-reconstructing-25-may"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">Houla</span></a> massacre, show how the use of violence can be transferred from state to society. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Even the worst possibilities for Syria will not match Rwanda, as Alawites only <a href="http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3580.htm"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">constitute</span></a> 12% of the population and there exists nothing near the same background of war and hostility. Assad’s rhetoric of ‘foreign-backed terrorists’ is diversionary, rather than the dehumanising descriptions of ‘cockroaches’ favoured by the <a href="http://124301-socialpsych.blogspot.mx/2007/09/how-it-happened-genocide-in-rwanda.html"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">Hutu</span></a> and <a href="http://blogs.channel4.com/snowblog/gaddafis-ominous-cockroach-threat/14744"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">Colonel Gaddafi</span></a>. Nonetheless, he certainly intends to bind the fate of his people to his own, so that the foundations of his rule will be as strong as his actions are horrifying. By <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/may/29/houla-massacre-killing-normal?INTCMP=SRCH"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">spreading violence</span></a> and retaliation he could make a monster of Islamism and the Sunnis, putting <a href="http://www.catholicculture.org/news/headlines/index.cfm?storyid=14477"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">fear</span></a> into his Christian supporters. By preventing an acceptable opposition from forming, and damaging the prospects of any future settlement, he would frustrate and deter the international community. Recent sympathetic violence <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/02/violence-lebanon-syria-conflict-spreading"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">in Lebanon</span></a> also raises the danger of chaos throughout the Middle East.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">It is impossible to tell how close any of this is to reality; the Shia-Alawite versus Sunni narrative might be exaggerated by the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/26/world/middleeast/syrian-conflict-poses-risk-of-regional-strife.html?_r=3&pagewanted=all"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">political context</span></a> in the Middle East; Western analysis might <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/marcos-barbery/syria-journalists_b_1563454.html"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">play into the regime’s hands</span></a> by sensationalising the unknown. It is not so long since Robert Kaplan’s <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1994/02/the-coming-anarchy/4670/"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;"><i>The Coming Anarchy</i></span></a> took the policy world – and <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/past/docs/issues/96aug/proport/kapsid.htm"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">Bill Clinton</span></a> - by storm with its apocalyptic vision of a descent into tribal violence. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;"><a href="http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/poisons-of-sectarianism-have-seeped-into-syrian-character"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">Feelings</span></a></span> about sectarianism and <a href="http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/?p=14783"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">how to face it</span></a> polarise Syrians themselves. Some regime defectors are <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/22/us-syria-alawites-idUSBRE84L0H420120522"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">pleading</span></a> with their fellow Alawites to believe that their future is not inextricably linked to the legacy of Assad. Sectarianism remains a choice for Syria, to be determined over the course of this conflict. Even when attempting caution, the international community should ensure that it always supports that.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">For Western nations (barring Russia) to hold off responsibility, vocally supporting peace whilst tacitly condoning arms imports by Sunni regimes, is hypocritical and may fuel the sectarian dimension of the conflict. Even when<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/01/syria-houla-massacre-un-resolution"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;"> calling</span></a> for international probes into Syrian war crimes, it is important to avoid making villains of the Alawites in general. However, the extreme difficulty of dealing with sectarianism, and avoiding polarisation, is demonstrated by the international community’s extremely mixed form in the past.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The genocidal massacres that took advantage of poorly-defended or militarised humanitarian space in Srebrenica, Zaire, and <a href="http://securitytalkafrica.blogspot.mx/2011/07/satellite-images-may-indicate-mass.html"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">perhaps</span></a> more recently in the Sudan, should worry those <a href="http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/03/28/mccain_resolution_calls_for_safe_zones_and_arming_the_syrian_opposition"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">advocating</span></a> it as a soft-intervention compromise to avoid ‘<a href="http://articles.boston.com/2012-05-31/news/31927965_1_syrian-opposition-mccain-and-lieberman-syrian-diplomats"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">embarrassing’</span></a> the US (whilst shaming Obama). Humanitarian space must be demilitarised and open to all; Assad’s military strength would require a heavy defence and precludes a Libya-style solution. In former Yugoslavia, aerial intervention at first greatly accelerated the atrocities committed by both sides, although the Serbs were singled out for the demonization that accompanied an <a href="http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/info/EUR70/018/2000"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">illegal</span></a> NATO bombing of civilian targets. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The Rwandan genocide saw a victor’s democracy emerge for the Tutsi army. President Paul Kagame has since been lavished with praise and aid, despite his forces <a href="http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/democratic-republic-of-the-congo/dr-congo-arc-of-war-map-of-responsibility-0"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">arguably</span></a> committing their own genocide in Zaire where Hutu forces thrived in refugee camps. Kagame believes his strict laws banning ethnic self-determination and genocide-denial are necessary to avoid a repeat of the still-recent violence, but is <a href="http://www.opendemocracy.net/martin-shaw/politics-of-genocide-rwanda-and-dr-congo"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">accused</span></a> of exploiting them to maintain his authoritarian rule. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">By contrast, a strong international involvement in Bosnia and Herzegovina assumed differences to be irreconcilable, imposing a <a href="http://www.bosnia.org.uk/bosnia/politics.cfm"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">fiendishly complex</span></a> political system whereby ethnic groupings were each given their own special status and divided into cantons, ensuring that ethnicity remains central to a weak and contradictory national politics. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The greatest case for caution comes from Iraq, where the shallow but costly achievement of US interests created a nation that would soon <a href="http://articles.cnn.com/2012-05-31/opinion/opinion_syria-sectarian-conflict_1_bashar-assad-family-alawite-sect?_s=PM:OPINION"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">unravel in sectarian violence</span></a>. The criminalisation of the entire Ba’athist party after the 2003 invasion of Iraq only fuelled a weak state and the later insurgency. This demonstrates that the need to end impunity and create justice must also be balanced against the impact on stability</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">International criminal proceedings have been <a href="http://africanarguments.org/2009/09/02/no-single-way-to-deal-with-atrocities/"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">criticised</span></a> for being too shallow and insensitive to local politics. Above all, the prosecution of justice must be seen to be fair and impartial. Where violence has occurred between communities that coexist in areas such as in Homs, justice based on truth and reconciliation may be more appropriate. Amongst the confusion, desperation and self-interest that will dominate any international response, the central guiding principle should be to keep the options for Syria’s future open.</span></div>
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</div>Future Foreign Policyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09896439662516345028noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6543702597078038746.post-85721460776447015772012-06-13T09:15:00.001-07:002012-06-13T09:32:33.089-07:00The Responsibility to Protect Doctrine and the Syrian Conflict – A Difficult Test Failed?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
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<!--StartFragment--><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">The International Commission on State Sovereignty’s document on the
Responsibility to Protect. <a href="http://blog.invisiblechildren.com/2012/04/05/the-responsibility-to-protect/" target="_blank">Image Source</a>.</span></td></tr>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The conflict in Syria has now been raging for over 12 months and has claimed over 9000 lives and left thousands more injured. Yet despite this the international community remains reluctant to intervene militarily in order to stem the violent bloodshed. This unwillingness to act must be questioned in light of the existence of an obligation on the international community to intervene in states in order to protect civilians from gross human rights violations being perpetrated against them by their own government. This obligation is located in the doctrine of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P), a doctrine which was employed to good effect to bring about an end to the violence in Cote d’Ivoire and the conflict in Libya. However, despite the efforts of various states and non-governmental organisations it has so far seemingly failed to provide a solution to the humanitarian crisis in Syria and this has led various commentators to consider whether it really is an effective tool for protecting civilians against gross human rights violation or merely, as many sceptics feared, glossy legal rhetoric subservient to international power politics.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The R2P doctrine was first conceived in 2001 by the International Commission on Intervention of State Sovereignty and was formulated in response to pleas made by the then Secretary General Kofi Anan to the international community to develop and find consensus on a means of effectively addressing gross systematic violations of human rights. The traditional approach of humanitarian intervention sought to provide just such a means to forcibly intervene in states but was widely criticised and discredited throughout the 1990s, especially by developing states who viewed it as no more than neo-imperialistic interventionism dressed up in a humanitarian guise and therefore a fundamental breach of Article 2 (4) of the United Nations Charter. The uncertainty surrounding its legitimacy and legality made the international community reluctant to act upon it which resulted in many horrific atrocities occurring unchecked, most notably the genocide in Rwanda and the Srebrenica massacre. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The R2P doctrine therefore sought to provide a more legitimate and legally uncontroversial framework through which mass human rights violations could be addressed and therefore allow action to be taken when necessary. It did this by placing the obligation to protect civilians primarily in the hands of the state. Only once a state failed to fulfil this obligation was the international community’s responsibility to act triggered. This is primarily to be discharged through a range of peaceful and diplomatic means but can ultimately take the form of military intervention if peaceful means prove ineffective and only in the gravest circumstances. </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">This approach sought to provide a more comprehensive framework for addressing violations which would alleviate the concerns of developing states and help build a consensus amongst the international community on when and in what circumstances action should be taken.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Following its initial elucidation in 2001 and its unanimous adoption by the General Assembly at the World Summit in 2005, the doctrine began to be tentatively applied by the United Nations Security Council, passing its first real test. It was hesitantly referred to in the sanctioning of intervention in Cote d’Ivoire and more unequivocally in Resolution 1973 which provided for military intervention in Libya. At this point it appeared that the doctrine was moving from theory to reality, providing a legitimate means through which to justify intervention and effectively protect vulnerable populations. Ban Ki-Moon suggested that these events '<a href="http://www.un.org/apps/sg/sgstats.asp?nid=5158" target="_blank"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">represent a historic watershed in the application of the R2P</span></a>' and '<a href="http://www.un.org/apps/sg/sgstats.asp?nid=5145" target="_blank"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">affirm clearly and unequivocally, the international community's determination to fulfil its responsibility to protect</span></a>'.</span></div>
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<!--StartFragment--><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">States vote for a UN resolution imposing a no fly zone over Libya in the
UN Security Council, 17 March 2011. <a href="http://notesfromamedinah.com/2011/11/09/r2p-r-i-p/" target="_blank">Image Source</a>.</span></td></tr>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The escalating conflict in Syria presented another and potentially much more challenging test for the newly evolving doctrine, a test which so far many consider it has failed. It is unquestionable that Bashar Al-Assad’s government has failed to discharge its primary responsibility to protect the Syrian population and the international community has subsequently failed to shoulder its secondary responsibility by failing to forcible intervene to quell the violence and killings.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Although a carefully brokered ceasefire plan has recently been put in place, it was not expressly done so under the auspices of R2P and cannot be said to be an example of the international community reacting to fulfil its responsibility established under international law. Although forcible intervention is not appropriate in all circumstances it is unquestionable that the situation in Syria warrants more forcible intervention. <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/21/the-united-nations-security-council-passes-a-resol/"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">More people have been killed in Syria</span></a> so far than were killed in Libya prior to the NATO led intervention and many have called for action under the framework, including most recently <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/activists-syrian-forces-resume-shelling-16208026%22%20%5Cl%20%22.T5xXuLNQ6Ag"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">France.</span></a></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">It can therefore be suggested that the failure of the international community to react effectively is a result of a distinct lack of political will. There are various reasons for this; firstly, unlike Gadaffi, Bashar Al-Assad has numerous allies who are willing to defend his position on the international stage. This can be seen from the various threats made by Russia to veto any Security Council resolution which proposed the condemnation of the Syrian regime or sanctioned forcible intervention. Secondly, unlike Libya, Syria’s geographic location in the volatile Middle East region means that many states fear the wider ramifications of a Western led intervention and are thus reluctant to actively support it.</span></div>
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<!--StartFragment--><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Diplomats disagree over how to deal with Syria. Photo: <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/newsbook/2012/01/syria-and-un" target="_blank">AFP</a>.</span></td></tr>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">This shows that despite the high hopes and grandiose claims that the doctrine would provide a clear and pragmatic legal framework through which to address gross human rights violations systematically and effectively, this has not quite been achieved as of yet. The conflict in Syria pertinently highlights the fact that the doctrine is still merely legal rhetoric and heavily subject to international power politics, something which Commission attempted to avoid when developing the doctrine.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">This is a serious problem which the concept must overcome if it is to become a credible doctrine which can really provide a means to prevent gross human rights violations occurring in the future, </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">an issue expressly acknowledged by states at the 2009 General Assembly debate on the R2P. The R2P has the potential to completely change the way the international community approaches the protection of civilians and it should not be squandering this excellent opportunity to further the implementation of the doctrine and more importantly help the people of Syria.</span></div>
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</div>Future Foreign Policyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09896439662516345028noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6543702597078038746.post-29099073719420682212012-05-16T07:00:00.001-07:002012-06-13T09:22:39.787-07:00Corruption in International Law<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Of all the forms of structural violence that beset the world, probably the most entrenched, widespread and harmful is corruption. It is a sickness, of politics or even of society, which prevents development without huge inequalities, strangles attempts at good governance, destroys <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18176062"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">confidence in aid programs</span></a>, and disenfranchises entire populations. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Of the two most widely-agreed types of corruption, it is petty corruption – the street- or low-level corruption involving interactions with public officials – that most directly impacts the poor. Petty corruption can envelop all levels of society, and is a crime in which <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/18/world/asia/18iht-letter18.html?_r=1"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">all are complicit</span></a>. Grand corruption, on the other hand, affects the incomes and governance of entire nations. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Although a problem for all countries, it is in the developing world where corruption can be seen to do the most harm. In <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/business/business-news/nigeria-seeks-to-clamp-down-on-oil-industry-corruption-1.1252530"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">Nigeria</span></a>, the scale of corruption surrounding the oil industry bedevils attempts to account for how much money is lost, or even how much oil has been taken from the soil. Despite the country’s huge incomes, rising poverty levels provoked huge protests last January, which may force the Nigerian government to take action. <a href="http://www.accessinitiative.org/blog/2011/11/ugandan-parliament-sparks-controversy-over-oil-moratorium"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">Uganda</span></a> too announced a moratorium on oil deals last year after corruption allegations caused parliamentary infighting. India has seen a huge anti-corruption movement grow since 2011, and the Arab Spring can also be read as a widespread rejection of corrupt rule.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Rich mineral and petroleum deposits can quickly attract foreign investments if the country’s politicians are able to offer strong protections to industry. Yet these incomes can sustain a corrupt political elite that shows little interest in extending the same courtesies to their populations. It is argued that these nations have too little capital and expertise to exploit their riches without foreign investment, but this begs the question of what else might be lacking. The risks of conflict that <a href="http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_eng/Content?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/zonas_in/ari5-2011"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">many scholars of war</span></a> associate with these types of state have led to natural resources being considered more a curse than a blessing.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">And yet, major foreign investment deals continue to be pursued in countries rife with corruption issues. There are <a href="http://www.financialtaskforce.org/2012/04/05/rush-the-dynamics-of-kenyas-oil-strike/"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">widespread fears</span></a> that the about the finding of large oil deposits in east Africa and their impact on countries like Kenya. Even in Somalia, which barely has even a transitional government, the prime minister <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/feb/25/somalia-alshabaab-oil-west"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">recently promised</span></a> that there would be ‘room for everybody’ to gorge on the country’s oil resources, as long as they help to construct the country. This happy narrative of Western-led development and state-building defies the experience of Afghanistan, which is itself <a href="http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137306/j-edward-conway/how-afghanistan-can-escape-the-resource-curse?page=show"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">negotiating</span></a> international investment in its resources. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">It is not that international commitment on the need to tackle corruption is lacking. Anti-corruption has been the <a href="http://www.unglobalcompact.org/aboutthegc/thetenprinciples/principle10.html"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">10<sup>th</sup> principle</span></a> of the UN Global Compact since 2004, and the UN Convention on Corruption now has 140 signatories. Anti-corruption <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1220398"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">conventions</span></a> have also been passed by the Organisation of American States and the African Union, and the US has had the Foreign Corrupt Practices law since 1977. Yet it is clear that far more needs to be done in enforcement terms. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Entrenched corruption is naturally resistant to national attempts at change. As a political issue, it can even become a <a href="http://www.ichrp.org/files/reports/40/131_web.pdf"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">tool</span></a> to justify the suppression of dissenters. The <a href="http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2101344_2101368_2101650,00.html"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">mass demonstrations</span></a> in India that began last year, as well as the examples of Nigeria and Uganda, demonstrate that corruption can eventually reach intolerable levels, even to the point of deterring investment. But national recognition comes at a great cost, and it is yet to be seen whether firm action will actually be taken.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Although, at its worst, corruption can hark back to pre-modern forms of order, it is often inherently transnational by nature. Those who obtain large riches at the expense of their compatriots often base much of their lives abroad, travelling, doing business, educating their children. The ability to expatriate their gains, or emigrate if necessary, is essential if they are to operate with impunity. Sanctions are therefore be an invaluable tool in removing the incentives of corruption.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">One major existing obstacle is a lack of data. Many attempts to measure corruption rely on proxies, such as black market size or regulation levels, and the UNDP’s <a href="http://www.undp.org/content/dam/aplaws/publication/en/publications/democratic-governance/dg-publications-for-website/a-users-guide-to-measuring-corruption/users_guide_measuring_corruption.pdf"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">advice</span></a> is that it be more of an ‘art form’, taking into account many indicators, surveys, and expert advice about the country. This is the approach taken by the widely-cited <a href="http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2011/results/"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">Corruption Perceptions Index</span></a> produced by Transparency International, which is essentially a compilation of expert assessments. Although useful for investors, this type of investigation is insufficient to identify corrupt individuals.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Targeting the organisations that thrive on such situations is an alternative to coaxing resource-holders, sustained as they are by their high incomes, to be more accountable to their own populations. Industrial lobbyists, whom can function as a more institutionalised form of corruption, are naturally putting up a <a href="http://www.trust.org/trustlaw/blogs/anti-corruption-views/sec-now-a-year-late-on-crucial-transparency-rules/"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">good fight</span></a>. Part of the problem is the <a href="http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/on-energy/2012/02/22/how-the-dodd-frank-act-harms-the-us-energy-industry"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">assumption</span></a> that payments to governments are a normal part of competitive business, and that any interference is unfair. A major concern in this respect would be China, which is taking steps to accelerate its foreign direct investment while <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18586448"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">making a virtue</span></a> of its ‘non interference’ approach.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">However, recent developments suggest that developed nations are increasingly recognisant that the costs of allowing corruption may outweigh the advantages of letting it slide. The US passed <a href="http://www.revenuewatch.org/issues/dodd-frank"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">Section 1504</span></a> of the Dodd-Frank act in 2010, requiring US-registered companies to register all their transactions with governments, and the European Commission followed with similar legislation in 2011. The Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, which has a wide mandate against all activities that can be linked to the US, is also said to have entered a ‘<a href="http://www.perkinscoie.com/files/upload/11_01_03_FunkArticle.pdf"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">new era of enforcement</span></a>’. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Another approach is to put corruption on the human rights agenda. The International Council on Human rights <a href="http://www.ichrp.org/files/reports/40/131_web.pdf"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">makes the case</span></a> that corruption can violate the rights to non-discrimination, fair judicial processes, political participation, information access, economic and cultural entitlements, food, housing, healthcare, education and water. Yet despite a growing recognition of the harms of corruption, the <i>status quo</i> remains resilient to both international legislation and national movements.</span></div>
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</div>Future Foreign Policyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09896439662516345028noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6543702597078038746.post-30432878840848831392012-04-09T13:42:00.000-07:002012-04-09T13:47:36.946-07:00Climate Change: The Right to an Island Life<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
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<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Coastal cities such as Bangkok put large populations at risk to climate change. </span><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2011/10/bangkok-underwater/100178/" target="_blank">theatlantic.com</a> Paula Bronstein/Getty Images</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Although the causes and dangers of climate change are
becoming widely accepted, the lark of purpose and agreement at climate change
summits has been disappointing. It is known that the problems of the future
must be solved in the present, but this does not seem to provide the urgency
for nations to overcome their historical differences. </div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4IrmOqSd1R9S-r9GVJ3h4ICK2TbVIoV9-DjOn5NSt27LA2w6D0VdKCOLFIncVXnbpOL5P7Tv8jWdYJYO1I8hIoKM6MOBGJlOhNooHrcjdiJASd8iFlWCR2PqIyktt5aNvm5dvFtLeXy0/s400/is+1.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">The former Tebunginako village, Abaian Island <a href="http://www.kiribatiisgone.com/" target="_blank">kiribatiisgone</a> Ciril Jazbec</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Yet, for some nations, climate change and rising sea levels
pose an immediate and severe existential threat. Rising sea levels are already threatening
low-lying island nations like the Maldives, Kiribati, and Tuvalu. In their
voices lies a desperation at the complacency of climate talks, which Mohamed
Nasheed, ousted president of the Maldives, referred to as a <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLmP40gYH7c">‘pact for suicide’</a>. </div>
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Kiribati has already <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/blogpost/post/kiribati-may-move-entire-population-to-fiji/2012/03/09/gIQAYNJS1R_blog.html">bought
6,000 acres</a> of land in Fiji in case of a forced resettlement, and the
Maldives have been <a href="http://www.visabureau.com/australia/news/10-01-2012/maldives-look-to-mass-australian-migration-as-solution-to-rising-sea-levels.aspx">considering</a>
purchases in Australia. In 2009, the <a href="http://irinnews.org/Report/78630/PAPUA-NEW-GUINEA-The-world-s-first-climate-change-refugees">world’s
first climate change refugees</a> were announced as the islanders of Carteret,
Papua New Guinea. In 2011, islands in the South Pacific were left with a <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/blogpost/post/south-pacific-water-shortage-means-some-islands-have-only-a-weeks-worth-of-water-left/2011/10/04/gIQAosZALL_blog.html">serious
shortage of drinking water</a>. </div>
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Referred to as ‘sinking states’, they have become a focal
point for debates on the future of climate change policy. The case of the
sinking state is a potential harbinger of the threat posed to the large coastal
cities and low-lying regions of the world. If mutual self-interest is insufficient,
the urgent voice coming from the shoreline could provide an evocative, human
reason for carbon-emitting countries to accept that their actions have
consequences, and costs. Great legal and policy changes need to be made to
mitigate the damage and prevent human rights from being violated.</div>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwbZMhnSeSbCs57TCceOtYrAObkzbnDxD4Lh6ps8ODoUuOopQZyzUjMyvYYdwdlLRXkiyvsAM65_G0cNdhLSf-5e9TQeJwRb5HfqvB1sbmeVXlEKdx-QBBUjRHmsS_X3gg8s5f6NRjUQY/s640/is+2.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Flooded volleyball pitch, Kiribati </span><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><a href="http://www.kiribatiisgone.com/" target="_blank">kiribatiisgone</a> Ciril Jazbec</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Tuvalu did attempt in 2002 to sue Australia and the US at
the International Court of Justice (ICJ), for <a href="http://www.sprep.org/att/irc/ecopies/countries/tuvalu/47.pdf">breaching
their obligations</a> under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, but
this and other attempts were <a href="http://pwccc.wordpress.com/2010/02/07/international-climate-justice-tribunal/">quickly
abandoned</a> in the face of the difficulties entailed.</div>
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Firstly, a mediating body such as the ICJ requires the
consent of all nations in a dispute. Secondly, a state must prove not that it
has been damaged, but that another has failed in its legal obligations. Whilst
the main emitters of CO2 refuse to ratify legally binding agreements on
emissions, prosecuting states have <a href="http://www.sprep.org/att/irc/ecopies/countries/tuvalu/47.pdf">little to
work with</a>. Thirdly, there are no precedents for establishing a causal link
between the specific emissions of one country, and the damage suffered by
another. Above all, the huge cost of litigation does little to favour the
marginalised.</div>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCAFZzS0bVlmIKrTQqPhyobyV2B4TLfIBuas0_lck8rPhU3F8UMy8rX9km_OLo1_X824c3laBg-0uEMG-reHEYRc9MtxmUbbEILfpc6WCcradeMlI1HMIEkuxs3QjHy_HtZxQVwvmzMiI/s640/is+3.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">The way home is flooded, and the village cannot afford flood protection </span><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><a href="http://www.kiribatiisgone.com/" target="_blank">kiribatiisgone</a> Ciril Jazbec</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Rather than sue for compensation on expected future damages,
there is <a href="http://www.mdcampbell.com/pdfs/grossmanclimatechange.pdf">better
legal precedent</a> for claiming the costs of preventing damages. It is more
plausible that reparations be made in the form of climate-related aid; plans are
afoot for $100 billion to be available by 2020, though as of yet there have
been <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-09/un-says-100-billion-climate-aid-hinges-on-public-private-funds.html">no
contributions</a>. </div>
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This option keeps the amount paid firmly in the control of
contributing countries, who will not be accepting direct liability or
subjugation to a legal process. It is even
<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/apr/11/climate-aid-threats-copenhagen-accord">alleged</a>
that aid is simply a bribe to encourage acceptance of inadequate agreements. The
lack of follow-through caused <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/dec/07/cancun-summit-climate-aid-row">tensions</a>
at the Cancún climate summit of 2010, and some argued that the new funds from
the US were only cut from other aid budgets.</div>
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The issue of compensation has therefore only provided another
stumbling-block as major emitters seek to minimise their responsibilities. The
scale of the funds discussed shows a recognition of the cost of failing to act,
but does not appear to be encouraging action. Although the proposal for part of
this aid to come from a <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-20/eu-ministers-mull-climate-aid-from-airlines-ships-draft-shows.html">tax
on carbon emissions</a> by private companies is more attractive, some nations
will no doubt wish to protect their national industries.</div>
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There exists <a href="http://www.nrc.no/arch/_img/9448543.pdf">no legal category</a> for
persons considered to be displaced due to climate change, and it is <a href="http://www.unhcr.org/4da2b5e19.pdf">usually stated</a> that the refugee
system, more a product of convenience than ideals, would not survive such a
revolution. This leads <a href="http://www.ibanet.org/Article/Detail.aspx?ArticleUid=3E9DB1B0-659E-432B-8EB9-C9AEEA53E4F6">some
scholars</a> to see regional agreements and national immigration policies,
under the guidance of norms of human rights law, as the way forward.
Prominently, New Zealand, but not Australia, has been convinced to allow 75
labour migrants each from Kiribati and Tuvalu each year.</div>
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In the case of a ‘sinking state’, the population would leave
long <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1539766&http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1539766">before
their land is uninhabitable</a>, and the effect this would have <a href="http://www.unhcr.org/4da2b5e19.pdf">on their statehood</a> is disputed. Therefore
the issue is not so much to create new forms of asylum, but to accommodate the
population movements that are a natural means of coping with environmental
change. </div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlNCv7g4hmoBxxz9eUViR7iZnML3l85-6DXXN7hCjvhgG9fuTydDacKELLNKybhJby9ZYBdlVGXEt4MuOVWaG8Pugvme23rBz_7FVhruchyJs3RfGXy-OGeiLVFhvvceZJ4-UM8Ik0dWI/s640/is+4.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="640" /></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Coconut palms lose their heads to saltwater </span><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><a href="http://www.kiribatiisgone.com/" target="_blank">kiribatiisgone</a> Ciril Jazbec</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
This requires a significant loosening of border restrictions
at a time when developed countries are increasingly hostile to immigration. The
same set of closed national interests that hamstring climate-change
negotiations will hold back plans to accommodate the effects of this stasis,
and prevent better-informed policies from lessening environmental impacts.
Climate change may <a href="http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/migration-to-low-lying-coastal-cities-putting-lives-at-risk-expert">increase
internal migration</a> to low-lying coastal cities, creating greater poverty
and vulnerability to climate-related disasters, and is also seen as a likely <a href="http://www.trust.org/alertnet/blogs/climate-conversations/its-time-to-act-on-climate-change-and-security/">cause
of future conflicts</a>. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
Climate migrants face an uphill battle in having their rights
to resettle recognised. Refugee practice can play an important role by ensuring
that the established human rights of a population are respected throughout a
migration, though new protection mechanisms will have to be established. As worsening
conditions and recurring disasters create large and very sudden population
movements across borders, <a href="http://www.nrc.no/arch/_img/9448543.pdf">it
may be</a> that refugees cannot be safely returned without some coercion, violating
the principle of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-refoulement"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">non-refoulement</i></a>. Without new
categories of protected persons this right may be threatened. Yet the term
‘climate migration’ <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1539766&http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1539766">is
criticised for simplifying</a> a huge variety of types, sizes and durations of
population movement. It will also be increasingly difficult to separate a
climate migrant from an economic one.</div>
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Although attempts are being made to atone for climate change
and anticipate future human rights challenges, so far this effort is mostly channelled
towards minimal responsibility rather than averting the coming reality. In this
context, it is indeed wise for island nations to be saving for land and
negotiating visas.</div>
</div>
</div>Future Foreign Policyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09896439662516345028noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6543702597078038746.post-8766426010224636252012-03-09T08:21:00.000-08:002012-03-11T08:32:55.543-07:00The Falklands – UK caught on the wrong side of the past<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
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<a href="http://www.futureforeignpolicy.com/" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgp3T4VwhCo6KqUjvYA8cYhfFbChWMeOAs0u9lWZ8cJ4AUP1_NF5BpYsdGnyE7NSV2IzPe8yrjzzYpsuBSZXzsdMxGcPIEFFKJUlCn52eDxHPu7VYKm4yahvn1QXQp3vhMb_-ZpuXSyw-A/s1600/homelink.png" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://www.futureforeignpolicy.com/1/futureshare/" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1psW_MNvpPb3tumB0nw9v_sSVqoDimpkYgd6zDe-7Bv80aiGyA1_S6DcYWyeC-NMuvbUfsyV4AcGQjTL8YyPjwPd77QTvn-vnW5UQBr1ji-ciQFMebfJMScSDI7SJPThZv-Ues0WN-JM/s1600/futuresharelink1.jpg" /></a><span style="color: #351c75; font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sam Storr</span></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKFvOueRbFTHnNnSm5ahOHL8A2lIg3GD5cFwQhhT5H6oIUR9K2Nn5dfOxk_v4tSeGNLcjmw_NKNchqsiyeya0FUj4keyKv9fM4YXpWbUimMKW1A6ebYXTcodfduSiaBjIPYyRCO8ZS8Wk/s640/Screen+Shot+2012-03-11+at+15.27.47.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">Falklands under cloud from the west. </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, <a href="http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=65862">NASA/GSFC</a>.</span></span></td></tr>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The remote, only recently populated islands 300 miles east of the coast of Argentina invoke mixed feelings within the United Kingdom. Some take pride in the defence of the islands against an Argentine military junta in 1982, others deplore the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2002/feb/25/falklands.military?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">violence</span></a> which accompanied Margaret Thatcher’s concurrent realisation of popularity, and a few express shame at the continued existence of what appears to be a fortified British colony. Opinions are clearer in Argentina, where it is widely assumed that the islands should be Argentinean, even if not everyone supports a takeover. The intent to (re)gain possession of the Falklands (or Maldives) was even written into the constitution in 1994. With the Falklands being an embedded source of Argentine nationalism, it is of little surprise that the freeze in the dispute imposed since 1982 is looking unstable.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Amongst longstanding fishing and environmental disputes, the 30<sup>th</sup> anniversary of the Falklands war and impending oil extraction have led to the re-emergence of tensions. The deployment of the HMS Dauntless, which the UK claims is routine, has led Argentina to <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-16940313"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">protest</span></a> a threat to national security at the UN. President Cristina Kirchner now regularly accuses the UK of colonialism, stealing resources and militarising the Atlantic whilst making some <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/02/29/uk-argentina-falklands-idUKTRE81S01Y20120229"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">petty reprisals</span></a>. The UK has been all too glad to respond in kind. David Cameron sticks to the position that sovereignty is ‘non-negotiable’ and totally dependent on the wishes of the overwhelmingly pro-British Falklanders, stirring further outrage by <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-16625963"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">returning</span></a> the accusation of colonialism. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The legal background is lost in contested histories and technical interpretations of obsolete colonial laws. It is therefore uncertain whether the Falklands will come under the aegis of UN Resolution 1514, granting independence to former colonies. Although required by the UN to hold discussions, both sides have a very poor record of being willing to negotiate, with the UK being totally rigid on the key issue of sovereignty since 1982. There have been no signs of a return to the tentative concessions being <a href="http://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/112605"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">negotiated in 1980</span></a>, such as a lease-back process in the model of Hong Kong. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Argentina is claiming the land as inherited from the Spanish empire. Their <a href="http://www.mrecic.gov.ar/portal/seree/malvinas/homeing.html%22%20%5Cl%20%22link1"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">foreign office claims</span></a> that the Spanish first made use of the waters surrounding the Falklands, later maintaining colonies and repelling expeditions from France and Britain. Argentina says that they maintained Puerto Soledad and kept a governor in the 1820s, until the US razed the port following a fishing dispute, and the newly-interested Great Britain took the opportunity to expel the Argentines in the ‘act of force’ of 1833.</span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Volveremos: We will return. <a href="http://www.elmundo.com/portal/noticias/internacional/argentina_presentara_una_protesta_ante_onu_por_militarizacion_del_atlantico_sur.php">AP</a>.</span></span></td></tr>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Britain <a href="http://www.fco.gov.uk/en/travel-and-living-abroad/travel-advice-by-country/country-profile/south-america/falkland-islands/?profile=history"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">claims</span></a> the first landing on the Falklands in 1690, and that they left for economic reasons in 1774, followed by the Spanish in 1811, neither relinquishing a claim. According to the UK foreign office, an American acting on behalf of the government of Buenos Aires made a token landing to claim possession in 1816, when the government was yet to be formally recognised, and failed to occupy or govern the islands. Argentine attempts to claim the islands in 1829 and 1830 were protested by Britain, and in 1833 a British warship finally expelled the small garrison.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Geographical realities suggest that if the Falklands must belong to someone, it should be the Argentines, who can lay claim to resources <a href="http://www.argentinaindependent.com/currentaffairs/newsfromargentina/argentinas-new-claim-to-falkland-islands-rejected/"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">within their continental shelf</span></a>. However, this leaves the question of the Falklanders themselves. The islanders reject the idea that they are a colony, and Britain defends their right to self determination as the first established population. The Argentine demand that they should be denied this right as a non-indigenous population seems morally repugnant, and there is a definite argument that an acceptance of historical reality would be the lesser of two evils.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Yet the Falklands do resemble a foreign settlement. Immigration policies have always been tough, and Argentines were totally barred during the period of greatest growth following 1982. <a href="http://www.falklands.gov.fk/documents/Census%20Report%202006.pdf"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">As of 2006</span></a>, only 29 residents were born in Argentina, compared to 1339 from the Falklands and 838 from the UK. The only Latin American country with a significant representation is Chile, sourcing 161 residents. The islanders may wish to preserve the little-England paradise they inhabit, but a rising population and the striking of oil are likely to sully the dream before too long. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Although Britain can legally and perhaps morally fight the Argentine challenge, the current spat demonstrates that the Falklands cannot remain as they are indefinitely. However, the posturing on both sides suggests that neither is really interested in achieving an outcome. As commonly observed, both sides have used the Falklands to bolster domestic support in times of crisis, in accordance with <a href="http://fas-polisci.rutgers.edu/levy/1992%20Diversionary%20Action%20Authoritarian.pdf"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">diversionary theories of conflict</span></a>. Although there are signs of a <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9098633/Cristina-Kirchner-told-to-leave-Falkland-Islanders-alone-by-Argentinas-intellectuals.html"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">mild intellectual backlash</span></a> in Argentina, it is unlikely that Cameron has as much to gain from an angry foreign policy in this conflict-weary nation. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Given Argentine determination and their supporters in Latin America, the Falklands will increasingly appear an expensively fortified British settlement. Though the Falklands would likely contribute to their defence should oil be exploited, this would only spur the Argentines further. The UK should observe the mood in the Americas, and realise that the Falklands shall remain a symbol of Britain’s sordid colonial past so long as they are so stiffly defended. The insistence on maintaining a strong defence will only raise tensions in the region.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">It is of course correct to defend the right to self determination, and the precedent of Gibraltar suggests that the UK <a href="http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Future_of_the_Falkland_Islands_and_Its_People/The_Future_of_the_Falkland_Islands_and_Its_People%22%20%5Cl%20%224._Relevant_Experience"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">lacks the authority</span></a> to relinquish sovereignty against the wishes of the people of an overseas territory. Yet it is unfeasible for the islands to remain so isolated from the continent. It would be in the best interests of the UK and the Falklands if British politicians resisted the temptation to respond with fearful jingoism, and sought to undo the last three decades so that the islands can open up to their neighbours. Argentina is no longer a dictatorship in distress. A good start would be calling their bluff and allowing the demilitarisation of the Falklands, as Argentina is obligated to refrain from invading under international law.</span></div>
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</div>Future Foreign Policyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09896439662516345028noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6543702597078038746.post-29906910152397488992012-02-17T17:36:00.000-08:002012-02-20T09:49:31.438-08:00The Land Rush<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
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<a href="http://www.futureforeignpolicy.com/1/futureshare/" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1psW_MNvpPb3tumB0nw9v_sSVqoDimpkYgd6zDe-7Bv80aiGyA1_S6DcYWyeC-NMuvbUfsyV4AcGQjTL8YyPjwPd77QTvn-vnW5UQBr1ji-ciQFMebfJMScSDI7SJPThZv-Ues0WN-JM/s1600/futuresharelink1.jpg" /></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #351c75; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Sam Storr</span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">African palms being grown in Guatemala. Photo: </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/slideshow.cfm?id=biofuels-land-grab-guatemala#2">Eitan Haddok</a></span></span></td></tr>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Crucial investments enabling Africa to feed both itself and the world, or a new wave of totalising globalisation that will bring about a <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/poverty-matters/2011/jan/28/africa-land-grabs-food-security"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">dystopian age of hunger</span></a>? The last decade has seen the phenomenon known as ‘land grabs’ reveal the most glaring inequalities in international property law.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Densely populated, industrialising countries such as China and North Korea require foreign lands to maintain food security as they grow, as do the oil-rich but <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1788948"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">water-poor Gulf States</span></a>. As developed countries scramble to appear sustainable, the sacrifices are to be outsourced to those who polluate the least, but occupy the cheap land and fresh water needed to grow biofuels. Various institutions, such as <a href="http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2011/6/24/land-report-juma-investments-oakland-land-grab/"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">Harvard University</span></a> or even <a href="http://www.galdu.org/web/?odas=5461&giella1=eng"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">Scandinavian Churches</span></a>, also make profitable investments in land through large hedge funds. Population rises and global warming could make freshwater the new petroleum; the International Institute for Environment and Development believes land grabs are better defined as <a href="http://www.iisd.org/pdf/2009/thirst_for_distant_lands.pdf"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">‘water grabs’</span></a>.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Although land is not always sold, leases range from between a half- and a full- century. Contracts remain strictly confidential, which excludes both researchers and affected communities. Estimates suggest the land rented to be in the realm of <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/mar/07/food-water-africa-land-grab"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">50 million</span></a> hectares over the last few years. An uncontrolled market might be in the interests of some, but should be uncomfortable for those countries contributing aid in the name of development, human rights and good governance. Recent claims that land dispossessions were an important cause of conflicts in <a href="http://www.rightsandresources.org/documents/files/doc_4711.pdf"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">Sudan, Liberia, and Sierra Leone</span></a> make this a key foreign policy issue. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Development, infrastructure, food security; all are rightly seen as essential to unlocking Africa’s potential. To protect responsible investments, international law must<b> </b>ostracise those deals which illegally dispossess or disrupt the livelihoods of local populations. These are primarily the result of a systemic inequality; whilst international investment agreements provide <a href="http://www.iisd.org/pdf/2009/thirst_for_distant_lands.pdf"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">strong legal guarantees</span></a> that foreign investments will be protected, the fate of local populations is left entirely in the hands of national elites. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Customary land tenure systems can be poorly integrated into the centralised states given sole precedence in international property law. The Rights and Resources Initiative claims that 428 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa use land in common that is in fact <a href="http://www.rightsandresources.org/documents/files/doc_4714.pdf"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">claimed by the state</span></a>. A lack of documentation prevents land claims from being made, and allows the false assumption that land unaccounted for is unused. The poorest rural populations are being overwritten by dreams of modernisation and centralised state-building processes. Their best legal protections are the basic <a href="http://www.fao.org/righttofood/KC/downloads/vl/docs/MOSER%20to%20claim%20our%20rights.pdf"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">human rights</span></a> to claim a livelihood. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">It cannot be assumed that a government gives adequate protection to its communities. Sudan in particular has been criticised for ignoring customary laws in order to support counter-insurgency strategies, and allow large-scale commercial development at the <a href="http://africanarguments.org/2008/08/10/food-farms-and-power-in-sudan/"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">expense of smallholders</span></a>. One recent investment by the US firm Agrisol would evict over 160,000 long-established, but persecuted Burundian refugees from Tanzanian land. Agrisol, echoing the language of the Tanzanian government, claims to be developing land ruined by refugee camps, creating food security <a href="http://www.serengetiadvisers.com/on-agrisol-energy-tanzania-limited/"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">and spreading development in Tanzania</span></a>. The Oakland Institute (OI) contends that established businesses, farms and homes are being <a href="http://www.oaklandinstitute.org/united-states-ambassador-challenged-claims-agrisols-land-deal-benefit-tanzania"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">ended by the eviction</span></a>. Repatriation should be voluntary; leasing the land whilst it is still occupied is an attempt to undermine the rights of those deemed undesirable to remain in the lives they have built for themselves.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The unilateral formation of international property law conveniently fails to question the rights of those given the keys to Africa. Until this can be rectified, comparisons with the colonial era of development are justified.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">There are also arguments that predatory land investments violate more than property rights. At some point the land grab issue becomes a debate about the actual environmental and economic impact of heavy agriculture, <a href="http://www.galdu.org/web/?odas=5461&giella1=eng"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">monocrops and biofuels</span></a>. Some claim that the efficiency and economic impact of sustainable communal farming is <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/poverty-matters/2011/mar/31/local-farmers-global-land-rush?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">grossly underrated</span></a> in comparison. In the case of Agrisol, <a href="http://www.oaklandinstitute.org/sites/oaklandinstitute.org/files/OI_AgriSol_Brief.pdf"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">it is doubted</span></a> whether Tanzanian farmers will benefit from employment or instead be indentured to a large agricultural corporation, buying tools and GM seeds in a closed market. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Neither can it be assumed that land rentals will bring greater revenues to affected populations. <a href="http://www.oaklandinstitute.org/sites/oaklandinstitute.org/files/OI_brief_myth_economic_development.pdf"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">An OI report</span></a> finds that major land deals typically include extremely generous financial incentives, such as tax exemptions and the right to expatriate all profits or produce. Land is rented out at a fraction of the price of developed countries or even, in the case of a 50-year lease on 100,000 hectares in Mali, for free. All non-renewable resources that are sold too cheaply are lost forever, and land can be damaged by intensive agriculture. Amartya Sen famously demonstrated that food availability has little relationship to the entitlements of the impoverished. The self-congratulatory promises of investors cannot justify the irony of land being lent for the use of the rich whilst its former inhabitants go hungry.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">A great deal of research and legislation is required to give individual and customary property rights the same protections as foreign investments. This will necessarily be a transformative and contested process, as such systems can be highly complex, heterogeneous, and embedded in society rather than easily-legalised structures. For liberal legislators, this represents a chance to enshrine better property rights for women. Despite the dominant role of African women in food production, many are dependent on their marriage for their rights, and some traditional protections have even eroded with time. Putting the small farmer on the map is the first step towards acknowledging their economic contribution, needs and potentials, whilst encouraging corporate responsibility. The negotiating process should be more transparent so that governments and investors cannot avoid legal accountability, and are subject to enforceable <a href="http://viacampesina.org/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1117:protect-peopleas-lands-water-and-forests&catid=22:biodiversity-and-genetic-resources&Itemid=37"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">guidelines</span></a> that would allow local populations to dispute negotiations. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Dispossession, the disruption of livelihoods and environmental damage can all be fought under the aegis of human rights standards, but not until the above work is done. Given the global pressures to exploit African resources, and the umbrella arguments of development and food security, it is important that states are convinced of their incentives and responsibilities to respect the rights of the marginalised. Ultimately, such reforms should be seen as enabling responsible investors to operate with less controversy.</span></div>
</div>Future Foreign Policyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09896439662516345028noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6543702597078038746.post-61688981572608343102012-01-23T07:13:00.000-08:002012-02-14T07:58:40.406-08:00The Threat of Cyber Security<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
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<a href="http://www.futureforeignpolicy.com/1/futureshare/" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1psW_MNvpPb3tumB0nw9v_sSVqoDimpkYgd6zDe-7Bv80aiGyA1_S6DcYWyeC-NMuvbUfsyV4AcGQjTL8YyPjwPd77QTvn-vnW5UQBr1ji-ciQFMebfJMScSDI7SJPThZv-Ues0WN-JM/s1600/futuresharelink1.jpg" /></a><span style="color: #351c75; font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sam Storr</span></span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: none; line-height: 14px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><span class="style_1" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; line-height: 10px;">The US Army is migrating all of its Windows-based computers to the Vista operating system to bolster Internet security by Dec. 31.</span><a class="style_2" href="http://search.ahp.us.army.mil/search/articles/index.php?search=Christian+Marquardt+Joint+Multinational+Training+Command" style="color: #75548d; font-style: normal; font-weight: 700; line-height: 10px; text-decoration: underline;" title="http://search.ahp.us.army.mil/search/articles/index.php?search=Christian+Marquardt+Joint+Multinational+Training+Command">Christian Marquardt </a><span class="style_1" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; line-height: 10px;"></span><a class="style_1" href="http://usarmy.vo.llnwd.net/e2/-images/2009/05/20/38704/index.html" style="color: #75548d; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; line-height: 10px; text-decoration: underline;" title="http://usarmy.vo.llnwd.net/e2/-images/2009/05/20/38704/index.html">US Army</a></span></span></td></tr>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Cyber-security is an issue that is being pushed to the forefront of international debate by both private industry and national defence departments, joining terrorism as the <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN05832"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">fifth priority risk</span></a> identified by the UK’s National Security Strategy of October 2010. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Several recent events suggest the response to cyber-security lags far behind current realities. Hacker collectives spent 2011 gleefully demonstrating the incompetence of those entrusted with our security and information. Distributed denial of service (DDoS) campaigns targeting Estonian and Georgian communications show that cyber-space is now on the battle-map. The Stuxnet worm, targeting the Iranian uranium enrichment programme, shows that states are already using the internet to engage in industrial sabotage. Meanwhile, <a href="http://www.securityconference.de/Program.638+M5183285721d.0.html"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">legal scholars complain</span></a> that there is little understanding of what terms such as cyber-warfare actually mean.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The Obama administration’s estimate that the global economy loses $1 trillion to cyber-crime annually is widely quoted, but <a href="http://infosecisland.com/blogview/12352-Cyber-Crime-Costs-Over-1-Trillion-Globally.html%E2%84%A2"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">the basis for this is unclear</span></a> (the World Bank puts global GDP at just $63 trillion in 2010).<span style="font: normal normal normal 8px/normal Arial; vertical-align: 4px;"> </span>Behind the hysteria of political statistics, the best measure of the danger is our vulnerability. As an economy dependent on financial transactions and intellectual property, increasingly integrating critical infrastructure and state services with the internet, the UK is especially at risk. With so many careers (and profits) being made on the back of hasty digitisation programmes, nobody wants to suffer the first major embarrassment. This explains why the new Cyber Security Operations Centre (CSOC) warns a successful cyber attack would cause a <a href="http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/02/22/csoc_report/"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">“catastrophic” failure of confidence</span></a> in the government. Conversely, cyber-safety could become a valuable commodity, making the UK an attractive place to do business.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Threats to cyber-security can come rapidly and from anywhere, are difficult to trace and can be quickly covered up. Beyond physical constraints, they can theoretically be carried out by anyone, against anyone, and have complex, wide-ranging effects. States will need to prosecute against crimes perpetrated outside their borders. An effective deterrent would therefore require an extraordinary level of agreement on a framework to define unlawful cyber-actions, and the willingness to cooperate in responding to violation. UK foreign policy is to promote European efforts to create these definitions, draft national legislation, spread basic cyber capabilities, and encourage cooperation between centralised national taskforces. <a href="http://www.fco.gov.uk/en/news/latest-news/?view=Speech&id=544853682"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">£650 million</span></a> is to be spent on the national Cyber Security Strategy. </span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: none; line-height: 14px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><span class="style_5" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; line-height: 10px;">Methods in critical military operations demonstrates the increasing importance of cyber-security in the modern world. </span><span class="style_6" style="color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; line-height: 10px; opacity: 1;">Pete Souza</span><span class="style_5" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; line-height: 10px;"> </span><a class="style_5" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/whitehouse/5680724572/" style="color: #75548d; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; line-height: 10px; text-decoration: underline;" title="http://www.flickr.com/photos/whitehouse/5680724572/">Whitehouse on Flickr</a></span></span></td></tr>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The impulse of nations to impose themselves on the Internet can be in contrast with accepted internet freedoms, and this demonstrates some of the difficulties of international cooperation. Some states define security in ways that seek to limit the freedom of speech. Yet whilst William Hague calls for international agreement to stop dictators from preventing citizens using the internet to speak out and organise against them, he is undermined by calls for the makers of Blackberry phones to end their role in facilitating rioters to commit unlawful acts in the UK. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Even if cooperation is possible, the <a href="http://www.securityconference.de/Program.638+M5183285721d.0.html"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">academic counter-current warns</span></a> that the opportunities offered by cyber-attacks and espionage <a href="http://www.securityconference.de/Program.638+M5d1d3045c2e.0.html"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">will be too great</span></a> for all states to respect their responsibilities, with Joseph Nye even making comparisons to the arms race of the Cold War. The difficulty of attributing responsibility for cyber-attacks may reduce the incentive to behave, or could even lead to states being wrongly accused. It is not difficult to imagine how the US might react if Iran appeared to be trying to steal atomic weapons technology, or if a hostile power appeared to have infiltrated critical defence systems. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">After the debate of what constitutes an unlawful act in cyberspace comes the matter of the right to respond to a violation; whether existing principles of international law can be adapted to the cyber-context, or whether they will be proven insufficient. The advantage of using established legal instruments to defend cyber-security is that they are less likely to be contested and can be deployed sooner. Avoiding the creation of a framework based on the nuances of cyber-space may ultimately lead to greater complications and a less flexible system.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Many nations, the UK included, are developing the ability to respond aggressively to an attack, to block it while it is happening and gain information of the intrusion; capabilities referred to by the euphemism <a href="http://www.computing.co.uk/ctg/news/2128476/mod-reveals-uk-cyber-strategy"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">“active defence”</span></a>. Katharine Hinkle notes that this could refer to the <a href="http://www.yjil.org/docs/pub/o-37-hinkle-countermeasures-in-the-cyber-context.pdf"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">principle of countermeasures</span></a>, by which one state can take action to prevent another from committing internationally unlawful acts against it. It is also asked whether an attack on infrastructure that cost lives could constitute a use of force legitimating defensive action under Article 51 of the UN convention, or whether an attack on financial institutions could be considered <a href="http://scholarship.law.duke.edu/faculty_scholarship/2368/"><span style="color: #75548d; text-decoration: underline;">similar to economic sanctions</span></a>.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Even if international legal instruments could be bent towards every aspect of cyber-security, Hinkle suggests that some foundations of international law, such as the principle of proportionality, may not translate. A proportionate counter-attack in cyberspace is unlikely to result in a proportionate physical effect in the target country. It is also likely that, due to the potential of cyber-attacks to rapidly cause great damage, cyber-security will see increased claims of the right to pre-emptive attack.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">A great deal of the precedent governing responses to cyber-threats will probably, as has been the pattern with quasi-legal interventions, be established by strong states against those who are unlikely to pose a strong military or legal challenge. Most uncertain is whether larger states will always conduct themselves according to international laws and prosecute crimes in their territory. Allegations are frequently made about Chinese Internet abuses, but they are difficult to substantiate and it is unlikely that action will be taken. The atmosphere of suspicion threatens to stifle the necessary moves to internationalise the response to cyber-security. It is yet to be seen who will be able to capitalise from this situation.</span></div>
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